Summary                                                  Facts                                               References

Summary

Technology got us into the situation of global warming and unsustainable fossil energy use. There are only 2 choices. Go back to about a billion people with human and animal muscle or remedy with technology. Of renewable energies, biomass, wind and solar, we can eliminate biomass as it would take virtually all the biomass within the U.S. each year to provide our energy needs. Growing even small amounts of biomass for fuel would result in food shortages, increased pollution and would not be sustainable. This leaves wind and solar. Since wind is not constant, it probably can not initially account for much over 30% of electrical generation. A national grid, electronic electric metering based on production costs, largely automated high energy consumptive industries, and plug in autos would all help to alleviate fluxing wind and solar energy power. (With electronic metering, if for example, gas powered peak generation came on line only, say 24 hours per year, the cost of that energy would be very high, and while, most people might still use there TV, computer and a few lights, they would likely choose not to use most power appliances)   Since wind power is already competitive with coal, finding ways to utilize this cheap, but variable power is important. Wind generation is the strongest in the Great Plain States with virtually none in the southeast.

Concentrated solar, likely thermal, but perhaps also concentrated photovoltaic is possible only in the very dry areas of the southwest U.S.  This maybe could account for another 30% of electrical energy production. While concentrated solar is considerable more expensive than wind or coal, it is available at the time of greatest need. Highest electrical use is for air conditioning which occurs during hot sunny days.

While we have huge coal reserves in this country, much of the high quality easily accessible coal is gone.
Coal is used almost exclusively for power generation and can be replaced at very little increased cost by wind and solar. Oil and natural gas for space heating and some industrial uses as nitrogen fertilizer production can be replaced with electrical power.  In extreme situations, since electrical power cannot be stored, there could be backup with fossil fuels or hydrogen which will utilize present pipeline infrastructure.

Powering non-stationary energy use as in transportation, agriculture, etcetera will be more difficult and expensive. Initially it will be conservation followed by more efficient engines (probably higher percentage of efficient diesels) and hybrids. Since high speed electric rail is already in use in many developed counties, it would seem likely electric could replace some automotive, air and freight transportation at greater efficiency and cost less than $100+  per barrel oil.

Nuclear power does not contribute to global warming, but has waste disposal and very low probability of catastrophic radiation damage. A nuclear radiation release of some northeast reactors could mean that 20 million people would need to be evacuated with a much smaller number never able to return to their home as happened at Chernobyl. A bad incident that supposedly can never happen, as with the 911 attack, should be born by the utility, that is, backed up with insurance (with real assets) obtained on the free market to cover any accident or incident. If insurance cannot be obtained, then the facility should not be built in an area where so much damage could be done. It should be pointed out that if a wind, solar or nuclear installation damage cannot be guaranteed except by the federal government, it then is not just a local, but is a national issue.

I predict electrical use over the next 30 years will double with wind supplying 30%, solar 30%, nuclear at maybe 20% and with hydro, geothermal, fossil, wave, tidal, etcetera accounting for the remaining.

A charge against carbon pollution will assure no more coal electrical generation plants will be built with older less efficient plants retired first. Some of the coal to gas power plants being built can will remain as peaking power plants with carbon sequestered.

Renewable energy does not appear to be very expensive if we allow the free market to sort out the most efficient ways to get there. Waiting until we have to demolish new construction and hurry up construction of renewable energy sources, will not only be expensive, but likely too late. There appear now to be a lot on money sloshing around in the world economies that would be put to work developing these renewable sources.

Miscellaneous interesting facts on energy     
A good way to find info is google the subject and often I find it useful to put the word wikipedia and the subject

From Wikipedia
The total solar energy available to the earth is approximately 3850 zettajoules (ZJ) per year.[12]

 Oceans absorb approximately 285 ZJ of solar energy per year.[13]

Winds can theoretically supply 6 ZJ of energy per year.[14]

Biomass captures approximately 1.8 ZJ of solar energy per year.[15][16]

Worldwide energy consumption was 0.471 ZJ in 2004.[17]

 Note that all earth biomass captures 1.8 ZJ per year, while energy consumption is 0.471 ZJ. Short of denuding the earth, biomass cannot go far toward energy supply. It would appear only waste biomass would be useful energy. Only at large coal or gas electrical power plants can CO2 be piped to be sequestered underground. Only waste biomass at thid time appears to offer offers inexpensive carbon offset.

An article by Glenn English (CEO of the national Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Washington, D. C.) in a recent electric association newsletter states

‘State, federal and local policy initiatives on global climate change promise to dramatically impact electric rates - doubling or even tripling them under most scenarios……’

No doubtthis could happen with centralized government control. Thermal solar can capture up to 30% of the suns energy, uses desert or wasteland, and creates no pollution. Solar energy in the dry southwest U.S. is strong or concentrated solar energy. Thermo solar can use desert or actually improve low rainfall grazing lands.                                                 
Photovoltaic power is still very expensive, in the 26 -35 cent range according to the U.S. Solar Energy Association, but is expected to drop and in time, likely someday will be built into most roofs.

There are some who object to nuclear power, others who think wind power results in noise and visional pollution. Most of this is local or regional and should be handled in the same way other types of these problems are resolved. No doubt there are good wind generating place where wind towers should not be built.

We use 300 billion gallon of oil each year and import 65 percent of this. In addition we use an equivalent amount of energy in the form of coal and natural gas. The net energy gain if all grain corn was turned into ethanol would be about 12 billion gallon. The math is simple. Even if the entire corn crop were turned into ethanol it would supply less than 9% of gasoline needs and less than 3% of total fossil energy. We can forget about biomass as a solution to our energy needs.

80 million corn acres yielding 150 bushel per acre all converted into ethanol at 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel will yield less than 34 billion gallons. Figuring the amount of energy to produce the ethanol and BTUs in ethanol produces a net energy gain of about 12 billion gallons. These are best estimates. 80 million acre is about as much land that can ever go into corn production. 150-bushel yields are also about as high as can be expected and 34% return on energy in, energy out is one of the high estimates 

References                                                                                 
Here are some renewable energy links.
I find wikipedia is very good and usually answers my questions.
I google wikipedia and then the subject.

Biomass 
General information                                                        www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soil  Fire

 Squestrating carbon in soils company building small plants www.eprida.com/hydro/ecoss/background/charnsoilresearch.htm energy forecasts

Oregon biomass information
http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/RENEW/Biomass/BiomassHome.shtml/%0rbe

Energy official claims biofuel does not increase food prices
http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0713-ethanol.html

USDA estimating net energy from ethanol
www.ethanol-gec.org/corn_eth.htm

Carbon Squestering
Capturing co2 from the atmosphere
http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/06/demonstration_o.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration